Nobody says the Iran nuclear deal solved all problems with Iran. But the agreement signed in 2015 by the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, China, Germany and the European Union worked, it prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons . Trump ended the agreement for a simple reason, his predecessor was involved in the establishment of this agreement. And he thought of course, everything Obama did was crap and himself would easily be able to do better.
Now he is in a trap. His strategy of maximum pressure ended in a disaster. He faces pressure from Iran. The only result achieved so far is, the hardliners in Iran have gained influence in the country and they show him that not only Iran but also the West is very vulnerable . What’s next?
If Trump continues logically on his way, he will order military strikes. But in this case an asymmetric war will begin and there will be no winners but only losers. And Trump knows this will significantly worsen his chances of re-election. That`s the reason he hesitates.
There are many warning voices saying the situation is similar to the situation before the onset of WWI , when the major powers staggered sleepwalking into war. There are high risks and weak hopes Europe might be able – perhaps involving Russia – to calm the situation and prevent the worst. I doubt, but hope dies last.
Perhaps Trump’s instincts and his hope to be reelected prevent him from making fatal decisions. I am afraid, we only can pray for peace.